Indexes have been constructed to aggregate many factors into a single number to depict the general state of affairs in a variety of areas. The cost of living index combines the cost of food and other consumer goods in a standard “market basket” to show how prices are changing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average aggregates the price of stocks of selected firms to create a number that quantifies the state of the New York Stock Market. The Millennium Project’s intent is to construct a State of the Future Index (SOFI) that measures the changing state of the future and shows whether conditions, globally or nationally, promise to get better or worse. In general, it explores the questions of whether we are making progress on the global challenges previously discussed.

It is true that polls could be conducted to obtain public perceptions about the future outlook (e.g., “Do you think things are likely to get better or worse?”), but such surveys are subject to recent news and media pressures, and people answering may discount or not know about recent improvements or threats.

The SOFI is created by a statistical foundation based on the history of key indicators and forecasts to quantitatively answer whether the future promises to be better or worse. If things seem to be changing, then the SOFI would make it clear how, and would make it possible to identify the factors responsible. If confidence were developed in such an index, it could be used for policy purposes: plans could be evaluated and compared on the basis of their impact on a State of the Future Index.

The State of the Future Index research was intended to answer five questions and, based on the answers, to construct a state of the future index.

1. What variables should be included in a State of the Future Index? If people say that the future seems promising, what do they mean? That life will be good for themselves and their family; that food, water and shelter will be sufficient; that fear will be absent and life fulfilled. What else should be included? The selection of variables forces a person to answer two key questions: What do I consider an improvement? And how would I know it if it happened?

2. How can very different variables be combined? It is necessary to make all the measures included in the SOFI commensurate—that is, expressed in terms that are comparable.

3. How can the variables be forecast? Measurement is not enough; since we are dealing with the future, the elements of the SOFI must be forecast. How can this be done?

4. How can the variables be weighted? The SOFI elements are not all of equal importance to the future; the SOFI uses the concept of nonlinear weighting in order to balance the significance of the measures that are included. But weighting leads to other problems: different people may see one or the other of the measures as being more or less important, or even of different polarity—that is, some may see an increase in a variable as good while others see it as bad. Since the SOFI is designed to be a globally aggregated measure, it can mask differences among groups or nations: the SOFI could look very positive and yet for some groups or nations, the situation could be worsening. Therefore it is important to recognize that disaggregated SOFI analyses will be essential so that groups or nations can determine—using their own data and weights—how things seem to be changing.

5. How can double accounting be avoided? This has to be considered or else one area could be over-represented. For example, should SOFI include both a measure of carbon dioxide concentration and global temperature? They measure different things but are important to consider for the SOFI for the same reason.

Many issues must be considered when constructing such an index. The future cannot be reduced to a single number. But the ongoing pursuit of this index would help raise and inform a discussion about what constitutes improvement. Combining many variables into a single index number can lead to loss of detail about the forces that move the index. Creating an index requires judgments not only in selecting the variables to include, but also in weighing them to create an aggregate number.

An index of global conditions can mask variations, for better or worse, among regions, nations, or groups. The apparent precision of an index can easily be mistaken for accuracy. For these reasons, many people interested in tracking social or economic conditions prefer to keep separate and distinct the variables that they consider important. These issues are discussed throughout a short overview in the print version and in more detail in this chapter. Nevertheless, the promise of a State of the Future Index is alluring: it offers the hope of identifying positive and negative changes and points of leverage for policy, as well as achieving some measure of balance in answering questions about the outlook for the future.

The process by which the SOFI indicators were selected involved the following steps.

First, the 1999–2000 Global Lookout Panel of the Millennium Project was asked to identify indictors by which the status of 15 global challenges could be measured. These nominated indicators were subsequently evaluated by the panel in terms of their availability and usefulness.

The results, plus a review of other index studies, were submitted to the Global Lookout Panel in 2001 to collect judgments about potential indicators for the SOFI. The respondents provided judgments about what the best (norm) and worst (dystopic) status was for the indicator in 2011. They also rated the importance of reaching the norm and dystopic state. The criteria for assigning a high weight to a variable were: the number of people affected; the significance of the effect; whether some groups seem to be affected differentially; the time over which the effect will be felt; and whether the effect is reversible.

Millennium Project staff worked with the variables identified in this questionnaire, obtaining 20 years (where possible) of historical data from the most authoritative sources, and forecasting each variable using a time series approach. The data were scaled by assigning the value of 100 for the most desirable (normative state in 10 years) and 0 for the least desirable values (dystopic state in 10 years).

It was not possible to make a reasonable judgment about a normative and dystopic status of some variables such as percent of urbanization and UN peacekeeping funding. Yet it was clear they were important to the future. Hence, within the SOFI research, staff will keep track of such variables but not include them in the SOFI calculation per se.

The variables were weighted in a novel way. All indexes studied thus far have assumed that weights are constant and independent of the value of the variable they modulate. Instead, SOFI assumed that the weights assigned to some indicators should change as the values of the indicators rise and fall. When an indicator reaches a level of satiation, it may not be as important as it used to be. For example, when the level of food intake is below 1500 calories per person, the variable is very important. When it is above 3000, the sense of urgency associated with hunger no longer gives this variable much weight.

To accommodate this nonlinearity, an S-shaped function was developed that allows the weight of a variable to vary with the value of the variable.

After considering the double accounting issue and removing redundancies, the SOFI was constructed with the following variables:

• Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

• Food availability (calories per capita in low-income countries)

• GNP per capita (constant 1995 US dollars)

• Share of households with access to safe water

• Carbon dioxide emissions, industrial countries (million kilotons)

• Annual population addition (million)

• Percent unemployed

• Literacy rate, adult total

• Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

• Life expectancy (world)

• Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year)

• Developing-country debt

• Forestlands (million hectares)

• Rich-poor gap (ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)

• Terrorist attacks

• Violent crime (per 100,000 population)

• Share of world population living in countries that are not free

• Secondary school enrollment (% of school age)

• Share of population with access to local health care (in 15 most populated countries)

Figure 2-1 presents the results of this exercise.

The past growth in the SOFI occurred because of improvements in:

• GNP per capita

• Infant mortality rate

• Food availability

• Share of households with access to safe water

• Literacy rate, adult total

• Secondary school enrollment

• Share of population with access to local health care

• Terrorist attacks

• Life expectancy

The factors that are deteriorating and hence retarding the growth of SOFI are:

• Carbon dioxide emissions, industrial countries

• Percent unemployed

• Forestlands

• Rich-poor gap

• AIDS deaths

• Developing-country debt

There is a delicate balance between the forces that move the curve up and those that depress it. The signs are positive overall, although relatively small changes in the following will swing the curve:

• Developing-country debt

• Unemployment

• Rich-poor gap

Finally, the SOFI concept can be adapted at the regional, national, state, local, and group levels. Comparisons can be made between local measures and another SOFI.

Much remains to be done. Here are some thoughts about an agenda for the further development of a system to track the state of the future:

1. Even the crude measures presented here could be helpful to policymaking. Therefore, it is suggested that the SOFI be re-evaluated and computed annually and published, together with a narrative and accompanying charts of the key variables that explain reasons why the future appears to be better or worse than before.

2. Indicators that are important to the future but do not fit in the statistical analysis should be tracked and displayed with the SOFI. A new kind of “dashboard” software that integrates databases and graphics should be considered. It shows change in indictors much like the dashboard of a car shows changes in speed, temperature, fuel, etc. to help the driver make decisions. SOFI could be the central gauge with key indicators around it, while other indictors that don’t quite fit but that are important could be in the other displays or gauges.

3. The questionnaire that appears in Appendix B-3 in the CD-ROM should be repeated periodically.

4. Some of the data are weak and new data sources should be explored to improve the coverage and accuracy of the SOFI.

5. Better means should be explored for forecasting the variables, including perturbing extrapolations with future developments and cross-impacts among the variables. In addition, for at least some of the variables, agent modeling and multi-equation feedback models should be considered.

6. An attempt should be made to derive the weights statistically by correlating public opinion about the future, or some objective measures, with the set of indicators designated for the SOFI.

7. Some Global Challenges in Chapter 1 are under-represented, such as:

· Challenge 5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

· Challenge 9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes?

· Challenge 12. How can transnational organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and global sophisticated enterprises?

· Challenge 15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

Reader feedback is sought for measurable variables to capture these better.

8. This work can help illuminate the different aspirations and beliefs about what is important about the future. SOFI could help focus such discussions in conferences, policy debates, and educational sessions.

9. While the work thus far dealt with a global SOFI, it is possible and important to construct similar indexes for countries, regions, or cities. If the parameters selected for the future index for these areas are the same as those used for a global measure, then direct comparisons could be made. For example, are things improving for our region as much as for the world as a whole? What set of improvements would change our outlook to be more in line with global prospects?

This may be the beginning of an interesting and important avenue of futures research and may stimulate thinking about what constitutes—and how to measure—a good future.

2. Some Existing Indicator Activities

There are many indices that aggregate economic or social indicators (also called “variables” or “index components”) to obtain a summary measures that “add up” to and elucidates a topic or issue. For example the Consumer Price Index is an aggregation of representative prices of products and services bought by consumers and that, tracked over time, shows how the overall levels of prices have grown or diminished; that is the inflation rate.

Several such indices are summarized in Appendix A and are described briefly here by way of illustration.

The UNDP has created a Human Development Index (HDI), comprised of life expectancy, literacy, education and GDP per capita. UNDP describes the HDI as follows:

The first Human Development Report (1990) introduced a new way of measuring development — by combining indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income into a composite human development index, the HDI. The breakthrough for the HDI was to find a common measuring rod for the socio-economic distance traveled. The HDI sets a minimum and a maximum for each dimension and then shows where each country stands in relation to these scales—expressed as a value between 0 and 1. Since the minimum adult literacy rate is 0% and the maximum is 100%, the literacy component of knowledge for a country where the literacy rate is 75% would be 0.75. Similarly, the minimum for life expectancy is 25 years and the maximum 85 years, so the longevity component for a country where life expectancy is 55 years would be 0.5. For income the minimum is $100 (PPP) and the maximum is $40,000 (PPP). Income above the average world income is adjusted using a progressively higher discount rate. The scores for the three dimensions are then averaged in an overall index. [1]

The chart below shows the UNDP HDI components, based on 1995 data.

	Life expectancy at birth (years) 1995	Adult literacy rate (%) 1995[2]	Combined first-, second- and third-level gross enrolment ratio (%) 1995	Real GDP per capita (PPP$) 1995	Adjusted real GDP per capita (PPP$) 1995	Life expectancy index	Education index	GDP index	Human development index (HDI) value 1995
High human development countries	73.52	95.69	78.68	16,241	6193	.8087	.9002	0.9809	.8966
Low human development countries	56.67	50.85	47.09	1362	1362	.5278	.4960	.2032	.4090
World	63.62	77.58	61.59	5990	5990	.6437	.7225	.9482	.7715

The UNDP has also developed a Human Poverty Index (HPI), and a Gender-related Development Index (GDI).

The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)[3] is another extensive project is being performed by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, and Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy for the World Economic Forum which holds global conferences in Davos. This is “a measure of overall progress towards environmental sustainability.” This group focused on four aspects of sustainability:

Environmental Systems

A country is environmentally sustainable to the extent that its vital environmental systems are maintained at healthy levels, and to the extent to which levels are improving rather than deteriorating.

Reducing Environmental Stresses

A country is environmentally sustainable if the levels of anthropogenic stress are low enough to engender no demonstrable harm to its environmental systems.

Reducing Human Vulnerability

A country is environmentally sustainable to the extent that people and social systems are not vulnerable (in the way of basic needs such as health and nutrition) to environmental disturbances; becoming less vulnerable is a sign that a society is on a track to greater sustainability.

Social and Institutional Capacity

A country is environmentally sustainable to the extent that it has in place institutions and underlying social patterns of skills, attitudes and networks that foster effective responses to environmental challenges.[4]

Within this framework, a set of 67 variables were chosen to make cross national comparisons and rankings for 122 countries. The researchers say that the ESI (and we observe, all such cross sectional indices) enables the following uses:

· identification of issues where national environmental results are above or below expectations;

· policy tracking to identify areas of success or failure;

· benchmarking of environmental performance;

· identification of “best practices”; and

· investigation into interactions between environmental and economic performance.

The UN Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) also conducts extensive work on indicators of sustainability.[5] The primary goal of this activity is to develop and track indicators that relate to the accomplishment of the goals of Agenda 21 and, in particular “ to monitor and report on implementation of the agreements at the local, national, regional and international levels.” They track over 130 indicators in the categories of social, economic, natural resource, and institutional. Appendix A includes some 40 of the indicators. The data published by UNCSD is cross sectional and is not aggregated to form an index.

The United States has established an interagency working group that conducts a program of monitoring and analyzing indicators that relate to sustainable development.

In June 1993, President Clinton established the President’s Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) with a mandate to develop recommendations on steps the United States could take to realize sustainable development. The Council presented its initial findings to the President in March 1996 in the document Sustainable America: a New Consensus for Prosperity, Opportunity, and a Healthy Environment for the Future. In this report, the Council noted the importance of monitoring the Nation’s progress toward national sustainability goals. It recommended that the Federal Government intensify its efforts to develop national indicators of progress toward sustainable development in collaboration with nongovernmental organizations and the private sector. In response to this recommendation, the Administration established the U.S. Interagency Working Group on Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI Group) in 1996. [6]

Appendix B contains more complete descriptions of these and other indexes.

1. Human Development Index (UNDP)

2. OECD Development Indicators (OECD)

3. Calvert-Henderson Quality of Life Indicators

4. Bribe Payers Index (Transparency)

5. Corruption Perception Index (Transparency)

6. World Times Wealth of Nations Triangle Index (Worldpaper)

7. Information Society Index (Worldpaper)

8. Environmental Sustainability Index. (Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

9. Goal 21 Indicators (The UN Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD))

10. US Sustainability Indicators (U.S. Interagency Working Group on Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI Group))

These studies used several hundred variables in total to describe various societal and economic conditions. A few variables appeared in most of the studies dealing with societal change; these can form a checklist for SOFI.

Adult literacy

Available resources (arable land/ forest area)

Climate measures (temperature/ CO₂ emissions)

Consumption measures

Educational enrollment or attainment

Employment and/or unemployment

Energy efficiency

Food availability and/or nutrition

GDP per capita

Health resources

Infant mortality rate

Life expectancy

Measures of crime and corruption

Number of armed conflicts

Population growth and/or fertility rate

R&D expenditures

Rich/ poor poverty gap

Terrorist incidents

Water availability

3. Concept of the State of the Future Index

The SOFI differs from other indexes in several important respects. All indexes that have been reviewed, are concerned with the present or past, the SOFI is designed to measure the promise of the future. Most existing indexes are cross sectional and are designed to compare countries to countries or various groups of countries at some point in time (usually the most recent possible). SOFI is longitudinal and is designed to track and project change over time.

In addition, SOFI is unique in that it has been derived from suggestions of the Millennium Project Global Lookout Panel in 1999-2000 who recommended and rated indicators to measure progress or regress on the 15 global challenges. Then in 2001 a special Global Panel rated indicators for the SOFI in terms of their normative and dystopic levels and priorities. 57 participants from about 15 countries participated in this SOFI panel. The process involved collecting judgments about the variables that might be included in the index, weighting of the variables, and perceptions about the best and worst possibilities for each variable, all of the judgments involved in calculating the index. Further, the process involved feedback that allowed respondents to add to and reassess the judgments which they and others provided in earlier global outlook panels. The questionnaire used in this work appears in Appendix B.

A SOFI can be computed for individual countries or groups and used to compare their apparent future outlook to each other as well as to the world as a whole. This application requires the use of country rather than global data, and the use of weights that are appropriate to the country or region. Thus it is quite conceivable that two political groups in a single country, working with the same data set, could produce quite different SOFI’s by weighting the variables according to their views of the importance of the variables and by their views of the best and worst outlook for each variable. Political differences can be quantified in this way.

4. Five Important Questions in Designing the SOFI

2. How can very different variables be combined? It is necessary to make all the measures included in the SOFI commensurate—that is, expressed in terms that are comparable.

3. How can the variables be forecast? Measurement is not enough; since we are dealing with the future, the elements of the SOFI must be forecast. How can this be done?

These five issues will be discussed in turn.

4.1 Elements of the Index

Identifying what makes one possible future better than another lies at the soul of inspired policy-making. In asking how to measure whether the future is improving, one is reminded of the hierarchy developed by the psychologist Abraham Maslow who proposed that basic needs of an individual such as food and sex must be satisfied before higher goals can gain priority. The highest level in his hierarchy is self-actualization—the fulfillment of one's human potential. A person taking the Maslovian view would select variables that measure progress up the ladder toward self-actualization.

There are other historic prescriptions for measuring what’s important to a better future. Sixty years ago Franklin Roosevelt stated the four freedoms as set of guiding principles that could easily have formed the basis for an index [7]:

In the future days that we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.

The first is freedom of speech and expression –everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way‑ everywhere in the world.

The third is freedom from want, which, translated into world terms, means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants --everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear, which, translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbor‑anywhere in the world.

Another prescient is found in the Preamble to the UN Charter[8]:

We the peoples of the United Nations determined:

to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…

to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and

to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and

to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,

And for these ends

to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbors, and

to unite our strength to maintain international peace and security, and

to ensure, by the acceptance of principles and the institution of methods, that armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest, and

to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples,

The principles stated in Agenda 21 can also provide guidance to recent thinking about what constitutes a better future[9].

Humanity stands at a defining moment in history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and literacy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being. However, integration of environment and development concerns and greater attention to them will lead to the fulfillment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can - in a global partnership for sustainable development.

And quoting from the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development those items that bare on the selection of variables that depict an improving or worsening future:[10]

· Human beings are… entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.

· The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations.

· In order to achieve sustainable development, environmental protection shall constitute an integral part of the development process and cannot be considered in isolation from it.

· All States and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty …in order to decrease the disparities in standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world.

· States shall cooperate to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem.

· States should reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and promote appropriate demographic policies.

· States should cooperate to …[improve] scientific understanding through exchanges of scientific and technological knowledge.

· At the national level, each individual shall have appropriate access to information concerning the environment that is held by public authorities… and the opportunity to participate in decision-making processes.

· States should cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system that would lead to economic growth and sustainable development in all countries.

· Women have a vital role in environmental management and development. Their full participation is therefore essential to achieve sustainable development.

· Warfare is inherently destructive of sustainable development. States shall therefore respect international law providing protection for the environment in times of armed conflict and cooperate in its further development, as necessary.

· Peace, development and environmental protection are interdependent and indivisible.

Finally, the Millennium Project itself can provide the primary starting point in the selection of indicators of a changing future. Over the last seven years, the Millennium Project has concentrated on identifying global change and potential actions that might be taken to improve the future. This work has involved between 1996-2000 more than 700 people who identified and rated almost 300 developments. The developments were distilled into sets of issues and opportunities with a range of views from policy makers about actions to address each. Finally the issues, opportunities and actions were distilled into a set of 15 challenges.

Favorable resolution of the 15 challenges would clearly improve the global future. In defining these challenges, “importance” was defined as consisting of these attributes: number of people affected, level of the affect, the need for immediate attention, and the level of reversibility of action or consequences of inaction.

The 15 global challenges are:

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

6. How can the globalization and convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

11. How can the changing status of woman help improve the human condition?

12. How can organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

13. How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently?

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

Chapter 1 on this CD-ROM discusses in details each of the challenges.

The process by which the SOFI indicators were selected involved the following steps:

1. In 1999-2000, the panel was asked to identify indictors by which the status of these 15 challenges could be measured. The results, together with other work of the Millennium Project, were published in State of the Future at the Millennium in 2000.[11] These nominated indicators were evaluated by the 1999-2000 Lookout Panel in terms of their availability and usefulness. Some 90 indicators were judged by the panel to be important enough for further consideration.

2. The list of 90 variables was reviewed. Specific measures and sources were identified to match the suggestions of the panel where ever possible. Duplications were removed as were those suggestions that appeared to be overly precise, or ambiguous.

3. The set that emerged which was scrutinized against other compendia of variables prepared by OECD, UNCSD, UNDP, CIESIN, and others. This comparison permitted “tuning” the final set for SOFI to assure that essentially all important aspects were covered. This produced a list of 43 variables presented in the table below.

4. In 2001, a follow-up questionnaire was constructed to collect additional judgments for the SOFI (Appendix B).. The list of variables from Step 3 above was the starting point for this inquiry; respondents were asked to amend or to add to the list of variables if they felt other variables were better suited than those presented. Respondents were asked to conduct this review on the basis of the following criteria: ideally the indicators had to:

· be descriptive of the challenges

· be available at a global level annually over the past 20 years

· be useful in indicating an improving or worsening future

In addition, respondents were asked to provide judgments about the values of the variables under best and worst scenario assumptions and the weight that each variable should be accorded in an index under the best and worst assumptions. The criteria for assigning a high weight to a variable were: the number of people affected; the significance of the effect; whether or not some groups seemed to be affected differentially; the time over which the effect will be felt; and whether or not the effect is reversible. Thus, a respondent assigning a high weight to a variable implied that changes in the course of the variable would affect almost everyone (or some large groups differentially), deeply, for many decades, and it would be very difficult to change the situation once it occurred. The respondents used the following scale for weights:

10 = Essential to include in any index that is designed to depict the expected state of the future

8 = Extremely important

5 = Enough people or groups are affected by changes in this variable to consider it seriously

3 = Relatively unimportant.

1 = Do NOT include it in SOFI

The following table lists the 43 variables produced in Step 3 that were evaluated in the questionnaire; the table also presents definitions of the variables.[12]

Variable

Definition

Source

Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

Infant mortality rate is the number of infants who die before reaching one year of age, per 1,000 live births in a given year; includes both male and female deaths..(World Bank, World Development Indicators)

U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, 2000

Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries

…total and per capita food supplies available for human consumption during the reference period in terms of quantity and, by applying appropriate food composition factors for all primary and processed products, also in terms of caloric value and protein and fat content. Calorie supplies are reported in kilocalories. The Low-Income-Countries (LIC) is a World Bank classification which includes countries with a per capita income below … a per capita income of US$ 760 (1998) (FAO Nutrition Database)

FAO, Foodstat Nutrition Database, 2001; http://apps.fao.org/page/collections?subset=nutrition

GDP per capita (constant 1995 $US)

GDP per capita is gross national product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers plus any taxes (less subsidies) that are not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income (employee compensation and property income) from nonresident sources. Data are in constant 1995 U.S. dollars. (World Bank, World Development Indicators)

World Bank, International Comparison Program database, 2000

Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water (15 Most Populated Countries)

Access to safe water is the share of the population with reasonable access to an adequate amount of safe water (including treated surface water and untreated but uncontaminated water, such as from springs, sanitary wells, and protected boreholes). In urban areas the source may be a public fountain or standpost located not more than 200 meters away. In rural areas the definition implies that members of the household do not have to spend a disproportionate part of the day fetching water. An adequate amount of water is that needed to satisfy metabolic, hygienic, and domestic requirements, usually about 20 liters of safe water a person per day. The definition of safe water has changed over time. The countries included are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, United States, and Viet Nam.

WHO Basic Health Indicators, Asia Recovery Data Information Center aric.adb.org/indicators; and WRI Environmental Health Indicators, 2000; aggregated by the Millennium Project

Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)

A temperature index was formed by combining the meteorological station measurements over land with sea surface temperatures obtained primarily from satellite measurements (Reynolds and Smith, 1994; Smith, Reynolds, Livesay and Stokes, 1996). Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is  14C = 57.2F, that value was added to the temperature change to obtain an absolute scale (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, March, 2001; http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs/

CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)

Carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes are those stemming from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement. They include contributions to the carbon dioxide produced during consumption of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and gas flaring. (World Bank, World Development Indicators)

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2000

Annual population additions millions

Year to year differences in world population.

US Bureau of Census International Data Base, 1999.

Contraceptive prevalence(% of women aged 15-49)

Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women age 15-49 only. (World Bank, World Development Indicators)

Surveys (such as Demographic and Health Survey or Living Standards Measurement Study) from national sources; WDI CD ROM, 2000

Percent unemployed

The "unemployed" comprise all persons above a specified age who during the reference period were: "without work", "currently available for work", and "seeking work", The unemployment rates are calculated by relating the number of persons in the given group who are unemployed during the reference period (usually a particular day or a given week) to the total of employed and unemployed persons in the group at the same date. (ILO) The calculation omitted India because of anomalous data and included only urban areas in China. Data represent countries which in the aggregate have a labor force that exceeded 1 billion in 1998. (World Bank, World Development Indicators)

ILO data for unemployment used as a basis for global aggregation, about 80 countries; www.laborsta.ilo.org

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)

Adult literacy rate is the percentage of people aged 15 and above who can, with understanding, read and write a short, simple statement on their everyday life

UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1999

Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above)

Adult female literacy rate is the proportion of female adults aged 15 and above who can, with understanding, read and write a short, simple statement on their everyday life

UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1999

Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months)

Percent of children under 12 months vaccinated for diphtheria, polio and typhoid.

World Health Organization, 2000

Annual new HIV cases (millions)

Annual number of newly diagnosed HIV cases

Worldwatch, Vital Signs, 2000 and UNAIDS and CDC

www.unaids.org

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

Annual number of deaths from AIDS related diseases

Worldwatch, Vital Signs, 2000 and UNAIDS, March, 2001; www.unaids.org

Life Expectancy (World)

Life expectancy at birth indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life. (World Bank)

UN, World Population Prospects: The 1998 revision, NY: December 1998)

Women in Parliaments(% of total)

Ratio of the number of women in all parliaments of the world to the total number of people in parliaments.

International Parliamentary Union, "Women in Parliaments 1945-1995" and 2000 data

Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions)

A refugee is a person who “owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.” (UNHCR) Data show the number of people qualifying and receiving refugee assistance from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, (UNHCR) various data series. <www.unhcr.org>

Telephone Lines/ Cap

Telephone mainlines are telephone lines connecting a customer's equipment to the public switched telephone network. Data are presented per 1,000 people for the entire country.

ITU, World Telecommunication Database

GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil equivalent) (High Income Countries)

This is a measure of energy efficiency and data for only High Income Countries are included.

EIA International Energy Outlook 2000 (includes projection) Read from graphs and interpolated

R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 US$)

This measure includes R&D for all purposes.

Science and Engineering Indicators, 2000, National Science Foundation

Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$)

Private consumption per capita is calculated using private consumption in constant 1995 prices and World Bank population estimates. Private consumption is the market value of all goods and services, including durable products (such as cars, washing machines, and home computers) purchased or received as income in kind by households. It excludes purchases of dwellings but includes imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings. It also includes payments and fees to governments to obtain permits and licenses. In practice, private consumption may include any statistical discrepancy in the use of resources relative to the supply of resources. Data are in constant 1995 U.S. dollars. (World Bank, World Development Indicators)

World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data, WDI, 2000

World Grain Production (million tons)

Total global production of wheat, rice and corn.

Worldwatch, Vital Signs, 2000, based on USDA data.

Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)

A ‘major armed conflict’ is defined as the use of armed force between the military forces of two or more governments, or of one government and at least one organized armed group, resulting in the battle-related deaths of at least 1000 people in any single year and in which the incompatibility concerns control of government and/or territory. (SIPRI)

Stockholm Institute for Peace Research, 2001 http://sipri.se

Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)

Long-term debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents and repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. Long-term debt has three components: public debt, which is an external obligation of a public debtor, including the national government, a political subdivision (or an agency of either), and autonomous public bodies; publicly guaranteed debt, which is an external obligation of a private debtor that is guaranteed for repayment by a public entity; and private nonguaranteed debt, which is an external obligation of a private debtor that is not guaranteed for repayment by a public entity. (World Bank)

World Bank, Global Development Finance, 1999

Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

Global estimate of the land area in forest inventories.

FAO <www.fao.org>

Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)

Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%

World Bank, Data on Poverty, 2000

Terrorist Attacks

Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. The term “international terrorism” means terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than one country. The term “terrorist group” means any group practicing, or that has significant subgroups that practice, international terrorism. (U.S. Department of State)

"Patterns of Global Terrorism", US Department of State, Publication 10687, 1999

Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)

Reported violent crime, 17 countries, comprising about 4 billion people; the countries included: Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Chile, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Russia and the United States.

“UN Survey on Crime Trends and Operation of the Criminal Justice System, 2000;” uncijn.org/Statistics/

statistics.html; in countries totaling about 4 billion people

Internet Host Computers (millions)

A host computer is a computer connected to a network that provides services to other computers on the network.

Internet Software Consortium, 2000

Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

Based on a survey and analysis performed by Freedom House and segmenting countries into three categories: free, partly free and not free. (Freedom House Survey of Freedom, A Century of Progress)

Adrian Karatnycky, "The 1999-2000 Freedom House Survey of Freedom, A Century of Progress"

Number of International NGO's

NGO’s are non-profit organizations that may be intergovernmental, governmental, non-governmental, or mixed in character. (Based on definition used by the Union of International Associations, 2000)

Union of International Organizations and Worldwatch, 2000

Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons)

The estimates are based on the cultivation of the product. The actual figures may be lower because loss of crops are not accounted for. (US State Department, “International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March 2000)

US State Department, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, Mar. 2000

Scientific /Technical Articles Published (Thousands )

Average number of scientific and technical articles published in the fields of science and engineering

National Science Foundation, Science Indicators, 2000

Oil Resources, Production, Identified and Estimated Undis-covered (BBO)

World total resources of oil; includes cumulative production, identified (discovered) reserves, and undiscovered conventional resources of oil.

US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment, 2000

Female Employment Ratio

Percent of females of working age in the labor force

Comparative Civilian Labor Statistics- Ten Countries, US BLS, December, 2000

Patents Granted, Worldwide

Total US patents granted to US and foreign inventors.

US Patent and Trademark Office, 2000

Number of ISO 14000 certifications

ISO 14000 is primarily concerned with environmental management. This means what the organization does to eliminate harmful effects on the environment caused by its activities.

International Organization for Standardization, 2000, <www.iso.ch>

School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

Net enrollment ratio is the ratio of the number of children of official school age (as defined by the national education system) who are enrolled in school to the population of the corresponding official school age. Secondary education completes the provision of basic education that began at the primary level, and aims at laying the foundations for lifelong learning and human development, by offering more subject- or skill-oriented instruction using more specialized teachers. Based on the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED)

World Development Indicators, 2000 WINSTARS CD Rom

Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

The countries included are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, United States, Viet Nam.

Basic Health Indicators, WHO, 2000 http://www-nt.who.int/whosis/statistics/ basic_whr/basic_whr.cfm?path=statistics.basic.basic_whr&language=english

Number of Nuclear Warheads

Includes both strategic and tactical warheads of all known nuclear powers. Data for Start II is included in extrapolations

Global Nuclear Stockpiles 1945-1997", Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nd97nukenote.html; and Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Arms, www.clw.org/coalition/nukelev.htm, 2000; projection per Start II

Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz)

Intel data. Presents highest speed quoted at date of introduction of new chips by the manufacturer.

Intel Corporation

www.intel.com/intel/museum/25anniv/hof/tspecs.htm

Satellite Launches

Numbers of worldwide satellite launches for commercial, scientific and military purposes.

Data from 1980 to 1998 compiled by Worldwatch; 1999 data from: stargate.1usa.com/stamps/launches/laun1999.htm

Number of Companies using ISO 9000

ISO 9000 is primarily concerned with quality management. The definition of “quality” in ISO 9000 refers to all those features of a product or a service which are required by the customer. Quality management means what the organization does to ensure that its products conform to the customer’s requirements.

International Organization for Standardization, 2000, www.iso.ch

The applicability of these 43 variables to the 15 challenges and their “coverage” of the originally suggested indicators is shown in Appendix D.

The questionnaire requested judgments about the value of the variables in a best and dystopic world ten years in the future, as well as weights to be assigned these variables in an index. To aid the respondents, average values for the variables during the period 1980-2000 were presented (shown shaded). The table below shows the average judgments of the panel and the number of responses. Many responses were received after this calculation; they will be included in the next publication of the research.

	Variable	Norm or Best Plausible by 2011	Dystopic or Worst Plausible by 2011	Average Values 1980-00[13]	Weight of Norm in 2011	Dystopic Weight in 2011	AVG N
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)	29	81	71	5.42	7.70	39
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries	2,847	1,668	2,238	5.50	8.39	37
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)	6,234	3,994	4,830	7.03	8.03	39
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water	86	59	72	6.05	8.52	40
5	Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)	14	15	14.3	5.42	7.12	30
6	CO2 emissions, industrial (mil kt)	16	37	19	5.78	7.68	33
7	Annual population additions millions	63	84	81	6.38	7.33	36
8	Contraceptive prevalence (% of women aged 15-49)	68	40	45	5.06	5.65	31
9	Percent unemployed	6	14	7	5.15	7.56	43
10	Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)	89	60	70	5.21	6.74	45
11	Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above)	85	52	62	4.79	6.17	43
12	Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months)	93	46	69	5.06	6.94	28
13	Annual new HIV cases (millions)	2	20	2.2	5.28	7.09	27
14	Annual AIDS deaths (millions)	3	23	1.3	5.61	7.24	28
15	Life Expectancy (World)	74	56	60	5.38	6.21	45
16	Women in Parliaments (% of total)	26	12	12	4.22	5.16	33
17	Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions)	9	67	16	4.84	6.39	28
18	Telephone Lines/ Cap	448	128	106	4.34	5.24	30
19	GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil equivalent) (High Income Countries)	8	5	5	6.50	6.81	24
20	R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 US$)	648	218	309	5.71	6.38	30
21	Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$)	5,474	2,396	2,972	4.94	5.64	28
22	World Grain Production	3,765	1,400	1,691	5.48	7.35	30
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)	14	51	28	6.30	7.83	36
24	Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)	1,168	4,577	1,836	5.66	7.17	25
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)	4,522	2,948	3,993	6.69	7.70	32
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)	29	296	96	6.24	7.65	31
27	Terrorist Attacks	267	673	456	5.90	7.09	28
28	Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)	1,918	4,057	1,178	6.00	7.50	27
29	Internet Host Computers (millions)	222	53	10	5.83	6.50	33
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free	20	44	39	6.22	7.33	33
31	Number of International NGO’s	40,526	19,100	17,833	4.74	4.39	24
32	Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons)	1,350	6,868	2,995	5.04	6.00	22
33	Scientific and Technical Articles Published (Thousands)	737	508	479	4.03	4.68	30
34	Oil Resources, Production, Identified and Estimated Undis-covered (BBO)	4,381	1,791	2,118	5.00	5.39	26
35	Female Employment Ratio	70	49	53	5.00	5.33	36
36	Patents Granted, Worldwide	248,421	79,762	93,275	4.59	4.82	24
37	Number of ISO 14000 certifications	514,706	78,333	7,339	4.31	5.46	22
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)	86	56	63	6.13	7.44	36
39	Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)	96	71	86	5.40	6.91	40
40	Number of Nuclear Warheads	13,118	54,824	52,598	6.29	6.92	21
41	Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz)	21,667	1,753	150	4.73	5.13	19
42	Satellite Launches	189	82	124	3.95	4.48	20
43	Number of Companies using ISO 9000	1,580,000	296,667	85,223	3.62	4.45	18

It is important to point out that in almost all instances, the dystopic weight was judged to be higher than the normative weight suggesting that when things get bad, they are more important than when they are good, as shown on the following chart:

We see also that the number of responses we received on each variable tended to be a function of the perceived importance, In the chart below, the number responding is the average number of responses to the four questions asked about each variable: normative value, dystopic value, normative weight, and dystopic weight.

From the standpoint of dystopic weighting, the variables scoring above 7.0 in terms of importance to SOFI were:

	Variable	Norm Weight	Dystopic Weight
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water	6.05	8.52
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries	5.50	8.39
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)	7.03	8.03
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)	6.30	7.83
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)	6.69	7.70
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)	5.42	7.70
6	CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)	5.78	7.68
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)	6.24	7.65
9	Percent unemployed	5.15	7.56
28	Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)	6.00	7.50
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)	6.13	7.44
22	World Grain Production	5.48	7.35
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free	6.22	7.33
7	Annual population additions millions	6.38	7.33
14	Annual AIDS deaths (millions)	5.61	7.24
24	Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)	5.66	7.17
5	Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)	5.42	7.12
27	Terrorist Attacks	5.90	7.09
13	Annual new HIV cases (millions)	5.28	7.09

The questionnaire also asked: “If you were restricted to only 5 variables, which would you include?” The variables selected by 6 or more respondents (about 1/3 of the respondents) were:

	Variable	Number Selecting
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries	21
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)	16
7	Annual population additions millions	14
10	Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)	14
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)	14
39	Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)	12
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)	12
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)	11
15	Life Expectancy (World)	9
9	Percent unemployed	9
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water	9
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)	8
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)	8
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free	6
5	Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)	6
6	CO₂emissions, industrial (mil kt)	6

As might be expected, most variables made both lists (the bold number indicate the items that made one or the other lists):

	Variable	Best Five	Dystopic Weight
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water	9	8.52
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries	21	8.39
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)	16	8.03
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)	8	7.83
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)	12	7.70
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)	14	7.70
6	CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)	6	7.68
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)	11	7.65
9	Percent unemployed	9	7.56
28	Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)	2	7.50
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)	8	7.44
22	World Grain Production	3	7.35
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free	6	7.33
7	Annual population additions millions	14	7.33
14	Annual AIDS deaths (millions)	3	7.24
24	Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)	2	7.17
5	Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)	6	7.12
27	Terrorist Attacks	1	7.09
13	Annual new HIV cases (millions)	0	7.09
10	Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)	14	6.74
39	Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)	12	6.91
15	Life Expectancy (World)	9	6.21

These variables are not independent; most relate to one another. For example, increasing population growth can result in later unemployment (given constant or increasing productivity and output); lowering food availability and increase infant mortality. Even recognizing the potential for non-independence, there are some variables in the list that may measure the same thing from two perspectives, This is the double accounting possibility (See section 4.5 for a more detailed discussion). We recognize that within the two set nominated by the best five list and the highest dystopic weights, there are some potential double accounting redundancies:

First possible redundancy

Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries

World Grain Production

Second possible redundancy

CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)

Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)

Third possible redundancy

Annual new HIV cases (millions)

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

The following graphs show the cross plots of these variables

The relationship between grain production and calories per capita is logical and striking. The relationship between AIDs deaths and new HIV cases is also logical since HIV leads to AIDs, but in the future the relationship may change since there are now drug regimes that greatly extend lifespan for HIV patients who can afford the drugs. With much more scatter, the relationship between CO₂ and atmospheric temperature may also be discernable.

So as the variables are chosen to include in SOFI, what should be done with these redundancies? It is more efficient, of course to reduce the number of variables, but not to the point where information is lost. For our purposes here, there were selected:

Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries

CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

as being the more direct measures of the phenomena that led to their nomination.

Thus the SOFI list contains 19 variables and appears as follows:

	Variable
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water
6	CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)
7	Annual population additions millions
9	Percent unemployed
10	Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)
14	Annual AIDS deaths (millions)
15	Life Expectancy (World)
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)
24	Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)
27	Terrorist Attacks
28	Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)
39	Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

Finally, the respondents were given a chance to suggest other variables “that, in your judgment, are at the importance level of 8 or above (in either the best or worst plausible worlds) and that you believe should be added to the State of the Future Index.” The suggestions appear in Appendix B and should be considered again in the next iteration of SOFI analysis.

4.2 Forecasting

Appendix C shows the data collected for the original set of 43 variables. These data have been drawn from numerous sources and cover the period from 1980 to 2000. The data series, in general, are global in scale. Where the data series were not continuous, interpolations were made (as shown by italics); when global data were not obtainable, selected regional or national data series were used to compute the global estimates. Over time, we expect that the data set can be improved by obtaining annual, global data for all series.

Since the SOFI is to show future values as well as historical, it is necessary to forecast each of the series. The horizon selected was 10 years, a period half as long into the future as the historical database.

The simplest form of forecasting involves fitting the historical data with pre-determined curve shapes; the equations used to fit each series were[14]:

1. Linear v= m*t + b

2. Exponential ln(v)=m*t + b

3. Power function ln(v)=m*ln(t) + b

4. Logarithmic v= m*ln(t) + b

5. Inverse v 1/v=m*t + b

6. Inverse t v=m/t + b

7. S Shaped ln{(v/L)/[1-(v/L)]}= m*t + b

where v is the value of the variable, L is the variable’s upper limit when one can be discerned, m is the slope of the fitted curve, and b is the intercept at t=0

Data for each of the variables was fitted to this set of curves in order to complete missing historical points and to extrapolate to the year 2010. The curve selected for each variable was based on the statistical “goodness of fit” R^2 criterion, consideration of the shape of the extrapolation, any physical limits that might constrain the curve as well. The table below summarizes the fit information for the set and the number of initial data points.

	Variable	Curve Type	R^2	Number of Data Points
1	Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)	Exponential	.941	21
2	Food availability Cal/cp Low Income Countries	Linear	.908	19
3	GNP per capita (constant 1995 $US)	Linear	.951	19
4	Percentage of House-holds with Access to Safe Water	Power Function	.336	7
5	Average annual global temperature (Centigrade)	Inverse V	.220	21
6	CO₂ emissions, industrial (mil kt)	S-Shaped	.880	17
7	Annual population additions millions	Inverse V	.636	31
8	Contraceptive prevalence (% of women aged 15-49)	Inverse V	.017	19
9	Percent unemployed	S Shaped	.587	20
10	Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)	S Shaped	1.00	19
11	Literacy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above)	Exponential	1.00	19
12	Immunization DPT (percent babies under 12 months)	S Shaped	.858	15
13	Annual new HIV cases (millions)	Power Function	.956	21
14	Annual AIDS deaths (millions)	S Shaped	.978	19
15	Life Expectancy (World)	Linear	.912	21
16	Women in Parliaments (% of total)	Power Function	.942	5
17	Refugees and others of concern to UNHCR (millions)	S Shaped	.905	20
18	Telephone Lines/ Cap	Inverse V	.976	18
19	GDP per unit of energy use (1995 US$ per kg of oil equivalent) (High Income Countries)	Power Function	.956	18
20	R&D expenditures (Developed Countries, billions 1992 US$)	Power Function	.971	18
21	Private consumption per capita (constant 1995 US$)	Linear	.935	18
22	World Grain Production	Linear	.852	20
23	Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)	S Shaped	.073	20
24	Developing Countries Debt (billion 1998 dollars)	S Shaped	.977	20
25	Forest Lands (Million Hectares)	Linear	.963	7
26	Rich Poor Gap (Ratio of global average income of top 5% to bottom 5%)	Linear	1.00	2
27	Terrorist Attacks	Inverse V	.518	20
28	Violent Crime (per 100,000 population)	Inverse V	.294	20
29	Internet Host Computers (millions)	S Shaped	.994	11
30	Percent of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free	Logarithmic	.291	16
31	Number of International NGO’s	Power Function	.985	19
32	Opium Production Worldwide (Metric Tons)	Power Function	.425	13
33	Scientific and Technical Articles Published (Thousands)	Linear	.994	4
34	Oil Resources, Production, Identified and Estimated Undis- covered (BBO)	Linear	,917	4
35	Female Employment Ratio	Linear	,958	19
36	Patents Granted, Worldwide	Exponential	.914	20
37	Number of ISO 14000 certifications	Linear	.935	5
38	School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)	Inverse V	.936	18
39	Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)	S Shaped	.856	5
40	Number of Nuclear Warheads	Exponential	.754	20
41	Microprocessor Clock Speed (MHz)	Exponential	.891	10
42	Satellite Launches	Exponential	.266	19
43	Number of Companies using ISO 9000	S- Shaped	.957	8

The following figures show the SOFI variables, the forecasts, the normative and dystopic judgments of the respondents and the weights given these values.

SOFI Variables

4.3 Scaling

Suppose a composite indicator were to include time series measures of population additions (number of people) and economic vitality (GDP per capita). Clearly the numbers representing these two variables could not simply be added; it would be necessary first to express their values in the same dimensions or in non-dimensional form. Making them non-dimensional is called “normalizing” and this could be accomplished in several different ways. One could normalize by:

1. dividing each number in the series by the largest number appearing in the series

2. dividing each number by the largest number which could ever reasonably be expected

3. assigning the lowest number in the series the value of zero and the highest number, 100

4. assigning the value of 100 for the most desirable and 0 for the least desirable values, neither of which may have yet occurred.

We used the fourth approach since it provides the basis for inserting into an otherwise deterministic process, an element of subjectivity about what constitutes a desirable and undesirable future, albeit in quantitative terms. To illustrate the approach which was employed suppose the original data were:

	GDP/Cap $ per person	Added Pop Millions

1980	4383	76.3
1981	4372	80.4
1982	4311	80.5
1983	4344	79.6
1984	4455	81.0
1985	4530	83.0
1986	4602	86.0
1987	4689	86.6
1988	4816	86.2
1989	4907	87.4
1990	4931	83.2
1991	4908	82.7
1992	4921	81.3
1993	4914	80.0